Our Work

Arctic Refuge Habitat Assessment

Polar Bear Den Impact Assessment in Alaska’s Arctic Refuge

Client:

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Region 7 (Alaska) – Fisheries & Ecological Services

Challenge

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (Arctic Refuge) sits at the intersection of energy development and critical wildlife habitat—home to the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) required rigorous, science-based analysis to inform Incidental Take Regulations (ITR) that balance responsible oil and gas activities with the protection of denning female polar bears and their cubs. In a politically sensitive and scientifically complex environment, the agency needed a partner capable of delivering defensible research and actionable risk insights.

Our Solution

Lindahl Reed provided advanced ecological and statistical expertise to evaluate the impacts of industrial activity on polar bear denning behavior, survival, and population dynamics. Our team of Ph.D.-level biologists and modelers designed and executed five interrelated research efforts:

  • Aerial Infrared (AIR) Analysis: Evaluate AIR detection accuracy and limitations using snow depth and thermal signal data, modeled through hierarchical Bayesian frameworks.
  • Cub Survival Modeling: Refine survival estimates with updated den phenology data to improve mortality predictions during sensitive post-den emergence periods.
  • Behavioral Impact Study: Assess den site selection, activity patterns, and survival outcomes for bears near versus far from industrial infrastructure.
  • Den Occurrence Estimates: Model annual land-based den numbers in the 1002 Area and northern Alaska coast to inform ITR permitting and mitigation strategies.
  • Population Risk Modeling: Develop a formal risk framework to simulate long-term outcomes under different industrial exposure and environmental monitoring scenarios.

All work was conducted in close collaboration with USFWS, USGS, tribal organizations, industry representatives, and conservation NGOs ensuring transparency, scientific rigor, and stakeholder credibility. Analysis and modeling were performed using R, JAGS, and ArcGIS Pro.

Results & Impact

  • Regulatory Decision Support. Developed scientifically defensible risk assessments to support federal regulatory decisions on Arctic energy activities.
  • Peer-Reviewed Research Contributions. Delivered five technical reports suitable for submission to peer-reviewed journals, advancing the broader scientific understanding of polar bear ecology.
  • Enhanced Ecological Insight. Advanced agency knowledge of polar bear denning behavior, habitat selection, and the influence of nearby industrial activity.
  • Federal Recognition for Excellence. Recognized by USFWS with a 2020 STAR Award Citation for outstanding leadership and technical performance.

Why It Matters

Lindahl Reed’s work equipped federal decision-makers with the science and tools needed to responsibly balance environmental stewardship with economic development in one of the most ecologically significant and politically scrutinized regions of the United States. By combining advanced ecological modeling with a collaborative stakeholder approach, we enabled USFWS to pursue conservation and energy security objectives rooted in evidence, accountability, and long-term sustainability.

What our Clients Say...

“[Lindahl Reed’s staff member’s] contributions were above and beyond his normal duties. Without his engagement, expertise, and leadership, we would not have been able to complete our project to such a high standard.”

Ryan Wilson, Ph.D., USFWS Marine Mammals Management, Polar Bears
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